Imagine that you are behind the wheel of a van and that the passengers are the most significant people to you. And suddenly you realize that a ravine opens in front of you.
What would you do?
You would instinctively turn the wheel. By all means you would make the impossible possible and try to prevent the fall.
Now imagine that you are behind the wheel of the same van, but it is moving very, very slowly. The speed is so slow that it seems you are practically not moving. Your eyes only see solid ground. Certainly, you heard several warnings that later on you will find more bumps and bigger holes. In fact, every now and then you feel a small bump. But you know that your vehicle is a solid all-terrain vehicle.
What would you do in this case?
Your natural reaction would be to keep going or, if you hear the warnings, slightly change your course. Nothing visceral signals danger, let alone imminent. You trust your driving skills and you will only hit the brakes when you are sure it’s necessary. For the time being you do not realize that you are already very close to a point where the van will fall down the ravine.
The past eight decades following World War II have seen an improvement in the living standard of an ever growing part of the population. A time of undeniable progress. But that progress is being made at the expense of the atmosphere, the other species that inhabit the Earth and various natural resources (such as fresh water) on which we depend on but which we do not value. These impacts are barely visible and most of them occur far from us, so we do not consider them significant.
We continue driving our van in the same direction, as if it were the only possible one and had no end. Business as Usual.
Let's take a look at where we are. The most serious and urgent problem is that we are changing the composition of the atmosphere. The main driving forces of our society are oil, natural gas, coal, the so-called fossil fuels. Whenever we use them, we emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is slowly increasing, reinforcing the greenhouse effect. We are just a few decades away from exceeding the tipping point of around 1.5º C of global average temperature rise at the surface, a point beyond which planet Earth will begin to suffer unpredictable and irreversible climatic impacts.
Another problem is the so-called destruction of biodiversity. Human beings monopolize an increasing part of the Earth's surface for their own use. Currently, we have taken over 70% of it at the expense of other living beings. We are causing the 6th largest mass extinction in the last 500 million years and in the last five decades the total population of wild vertebrates (mammals, fish, reptiles, birds, batrachians) has decreased by about 68%.
Can we reverse this path? With current technology and the financial resources available, we could do that.
The governments, notably those in the European Union, will say they are aware of the problem and are already taking action. There is always talk of sustainability, green economy and energy transition.
The problem is that this effort is very small, given the urgency of the situation, and it is insufficient to stop the damage we are causing to our Planet Earth.
Scientists know that our collective van is already very close to the ravine and that the consequences will be very serious.
We can tackle the problem. But first, we have to collectively be aware of the seriousness and urgency of the dangers we are facing. Otherwise, we will not mobilize efforts and the van will keep on going…
António Telo and Patrícia Pereira
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